TRAP: The Real Adviser Podcast

70 - BitCoin Battles

• Episode 70

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In this latest pile of TRAP, the Trap Pack discuss

  • Topical Titbits
  • Meat and Potatoes: BitCoin Battles
  • Culture Corner
  • TRAPist question(s) from Anonymous Lewis

Show links: http://tiny.cc/traplinks

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Unknown:

Music, welcome to the real advisor podcast, T, R, A, P, trap. Please follow us and join in the conversation on Twitter at advisor podcast, where you can suggest ideas and themes you'd like the trap team to discuss. Also remember to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel and leave a six out of five star review on iTunes. Doing all this really, really helps us, which means we can do more to help you. Now, let's head over to the studio for the latest pile of trap.

Nick Lincoln:

Yes, indeed, dear TRAPPIST, welcome back to what many people are calling episode 70 of the real advisor podcast, t up, AP trap. My name is Lincoln, and joining me as ever in the digital studio of doom, are the three other Horsemen of the Apocalypse. Alan, the storyteller, Smith, Carl della vocci, the voice widget and and the ultra heart. Now, gentlemen, we have a show packed full of app salutely Nothing, so let's start unpacking it straight away with some more high energy review reads. Read up on my very good friend the right honorable Mr. Andrew sane heart.

Andy Hart:

Thank you very much. Nicholas, the first one's a little bit embarrassing for me, but I'll read it anyway. Five stars. Luke Jeffrey entitled, good set of role models for anyone in or entering the sector listening to trap as a result of Maven money and the excellent wisdom serve from Andy Hart, six out of five stars. More complicated. Come on. Read these out. Gotta read these out. Go read these out

Nick Lincoln:

everything, and he can't be told anything. His name is Andrew Hart.

Carl Widger:

We can see how absolutely mortified you are. So

Andy Hart:

embarrassed. Backfired. Located, into the spirit of trap. Live more on that later. Following the rest of the review, more compounded wisdom served from four very experienced advisors. Thank you for your good work, guys. I'm not gonna read the next bit. He's basically saying, Bring back making money, right? The final review Sammy Bucha entitled CPD hack. Could this be the best CPD ever? And the show notes are a real gift to keep up the great work. Gents, best wishes. Sam, back to you. Nicholas, okay,

Nick Lincoln:

lovely. Thank you. Thank you, Luke. Thank you, Sam, for your reviews. They are just like gold dust to us and our inflated egos. Really appreciate it. I'm glad somebody actually looks at the show notes, which is, um, which is nice to know. Okay, so episode 70. What's anything happening? Kent? Anything coming up? Yes, course, there is the next episode. Episode 71 will be trapped live, recorded at the Royal College of positions in front of about 150 odd mad, raving Trappists. I think we've pretty much sold out, guys. Is that the message I'm supposed to be pushing? We didn't talk about this

Andy Hart:

before? Yeah, seriously about another two tickets. If someone is desperate around next Wednesday, okay,

Carl Widger:

but, but I suppose it should be said that if you have got a ticket and you can't go, please do let us know, because there are people who are looking for tickets so or

Andy Hart:

not, let us know. Give you Yeah, someone else.

Unknown:

Get me involved. Because

Andy Hart:

someone else, or do a post on LinkedIn. You got a spare ticket like we're happy for you quickly, the black

Unknown:

market reason will be crazy. Oh, my God. I mean tickets outside

Nick Lincoln:

Bitcoin. We'll talk about that later. Okay, all right, so looking forward to that, can't wait, and we're all prepared and excited, aren't we? Jen, okay, so the final, first topic, let I know, let's, let's put a timestamp on episode 70. Oh, this is a story that's never done the rounds before. Alan, well done. Crack on.

Unknown:

Yeah, hasn't done the runs before, but it's come up yet again on the back of some recent mark. Did you notice some market volatility recently? Did you notice up and down, up and down, down? Emergency podcasts, you name

Nick Lincoln:

it. Last was it the last one was the Trump tantrums episode before we're talking about it, just in the background now, but yeah, sorry, do go on. I

Unknown:

mean, markets, and I pretty much returned to the level they were around about the time of what you call it, Independence Day, Freedom Day. What was it called? Liberation Day? Liberation Day, it was some sometimes

Andy Hart:

the first of April, because it just seemed like an April Fools. It's just amazing

Unknown:

that that is the level we're at. It's wild, anywho what we're often told and for young trappers, listening to this, who haven't been through a lot of volatility in the past is, I mean, let's face it, subject, there have been some bumps in the road, but going back to, I mean, pretty much 2009 we've had, the markets have generally gone broadly up. Of course, we had 2020 we've got a couple of other bumps along the way, but they're generally broadly gone up and. Those of us who advocate for low cost index, call it passive, call it smart beta, call it what. You will always get some pushback from those who advocate for the dark side, Nicholas, active management, active trading, moving in and out of stocks, timing the market, all that sort of stuff, because those proponents of that style of investment always say, yeah, yeah, yeah. That's all well and good. When markets are racing away, it's easy to track a market as it's going up. You just wait. They tell us, you just wait where there's some volatility. That's when having a professional, informed, Active Trader manager really comes into the room. Well, guess what? We've had the volatility. Turns out, if we continue to have some volatility, there's just an interesting article. There's lots of this out there as an interesting article that I noticed on trust net, If anyone looks at that, subscribe is quite useful, bit like Morning Star, but lots of data. But they just did an article saying that despite all the previous promises, the active managers over this recent period of volatility have actually underperformed like a passive tracker. Obviously, Tracker funds has tracked the market down, but the vast, vast, vast majority of the active managers have also tracked the market down, but even further and faster than the index funds. I posted a link to the article in the show notes, but there's a couple of glaring examples. I mean, you focus on just one example, the focus on the tech stocks in particular, which obviously have really borne the brunt of this recent volatility. Markets down the IA technology and technology innovation sector put in the worst showing of all the sectors, and fell about 19.7% whereas the average active fund on the same sector fell 24.6% special, special message must go to the lion trust Global Technology Fund, which fell by 31.6% over that period of time versus 19.6 so yeah. I mean, we are kind of, you know, playing the same song, same old story. But again, it goes to show you that the data, the facts and the evidence do not hold up very positively for those who follow, you know, active trading in other markets where the markets are going up sideways, or indeed going down. So useful article.

Nick Lincoln:

Yeah, point well made. And, yeah, I wonder how much more Kathy Woods arc fund has suffered if those other tech funds have suffered, right? Della vocci, the voice, make this exciting.

Carl Widger:

Sorry, what's what's up next? Nick, remind me again. No, someone else tell me, because I don't have the show notes in front. See, this is why trap live isn't really that much of a challenge for me, because I will be going, Oh, Jesus Christ. We don't have our notes what we do.

Unknown:

So, yeah, we're gonna be lost up there. You're gonna be element exactly. I just

Carl Widger:

like sitting there, just doing what I always do, just smile and just talked like a call about

Unknown:

what's next. Yeah, goes extra quiet. You start speaking, yeah, no, it's your turn.

Carl Widger:

Yeah, exactly. That's actually, precisely how it works. But anyway, yeah, look, this is, I think this is good news, because I've been bemoaning the lack of competition in the Irish banking sector, and that the pillar banks here have kind of been running away with themselves in terms of profitability because they haven't been challenged. And we're going to be talking about fintechs later on, but this is, you know, Revolut coming in and really making a real impact. So what they've done is they've done two things. They've brought together. They're entering the mortgage market, I think it's next month in Ireland, and in advance of that, they've swept up 1 billion in savings from Irish savers. So Irish savers are trying to build up their savings with revenues in order to be able to apply for mortgages with Revolut. So very clever by the Irish savers, I would say, but also extremely clever by revenue, to announce it in advance, to hoover up that. But this latest announcement is that they're now going to be providing corporate deposit rates as well. I think it's about 1.5 1.6 1.7% depending on terms that you'll put it away for, and that kind of stuff. Honestly, I can't see them making much of an impact. I can't see big companies putting loads of money with the likes of revenue just yet. But having said that, good for competition, and if it kind of wakes up the Bank of Ireland and AIB guys and gals to provide some reasonable rates. Well, that can only be really, really good. What's

Andy Hart:

the going rate with the other other banks in I mean, how much better are

Carl Widger:

they? Well, in terms of the corporate deposits, like they're that you're pretty much getting nothing at all. So they've had to react on the spoken about this a good bit on the individual depositors. They've like, you know. If you're willing to lock it away for six months, or they're competing now against the likes of bunk and raison.ie but I, I'm, I know that the corporate deposits are pretty much non existent here at the moment. Revolute absolutely killing

Unknown:

it. They're killing it. They're gonna say their latest profits, ukn tech, unicorn. What a great story for

Andy Hart:

insanely high like 35% or something, ballpark like that, although the founders

Unknown:

have relocated to Dubai, which is that whole other, really story, well, that founders can work anywhere at some boys, yeah,

Carl Widger:

but that says, that says, that says a lot. But they're a magnificent company. And, like, I don't know if you've used, like for me, like going from Euro just to if, when I go over and see you boys, I have, automatically, I have a sterling account, if I go to the States, automatically have a have, you know, all done on my app with revenue.

Unknown:

It's just absolutely great for kids as well. I've got the kids accounts as well, and teenagers constantly ask me for money. I just ping it across to them. 100% I

Carl Widger:

have a daughter going to go into the states later on this summer, to college there, and it'd be really easy. Like, if she says to me, Dad, I need money. It's like, right through the app, just send her money and she'll be able to put transfer, transfer from her Euro account into $1 account straight away. Absolutely,

Unknown:

Bitcoin.

Carl Widger:

You said it Nick. But let look. Just hold fire. Just

Nick Lincoln:

for I just wonder your banks are making enormous profits. Yeah, watch, because the Irish clearing banks prime rate, as you know, is 4.15% that's the that's the rate they lend out to businesses for short term borrowing, and they're giving bugger all back in interest on deposits to

Carl Widger:

corporate. Well, they're giving you a little bit more, at least, now than they were because of the likes of Revolut and reason and bunk and these guys. So their profits are down slightly, but they've just, they've just given guidance for the first quarter, and their profits are in line with expectations. Like they were making a billion every six months for the last couple of years. So all

Andy Hart:

banks, the latest numbers have come in, Barclays, HSBC, Santa, their astronomical profits. I mean the spread they make on monies. I think it's gone up to about 2.7 now on average. Yeah, so it's insane. We still can't open a bank account with them. Still kind of, yeah,

Nick Lincoln:

yeah, that's a proper that's a proper reduction in the yield. That means something that's spread. But it's not because there's

Unknown:

a lot of exciting subjects here, just to manage my own expectations. Are there any updates on pra set? Prsa corner, prsa corner. I may need to think revolution is gonna launch a prsa. What they're doing just get your money, switches your Bitcoin. I have some big PR zeroes, but I've got a good a hold up your sleeve. Oh my god, the excitement

Nick Lincoln:

in front of a live audience. Guys,

Unknown:

I care you guys directly after this episode. Okay, so you, yeah,

Nick Lincoln:

okay, right. Next. Point Ultra, oh,

Andy Hart:

now this point I found quite interesting. A few moving parts for this one, but I wasn't going to include it. Then I saw your link Nick about the longevity character, but you somehow moved it. This was meant to be a follow on point from yours, but anyway, I'll keep it brief. Ethel Caterham has become the world's oldest person. She's 115 How has she become the world's oldest person? She's not dead, but the previous record holder in Mexico that was a year older than her, sadly passed away. Obviously, it's a light hearted story, but, you know, congratulations to her. But this does reconfirm our business of people living longer and longer and longer and longer, and it is one of the biggest financial risks to our clients, living longer, retiring at pick and age, 6065 and these days, with longevity just racing away, pills and potions keeping people alive and well for a lot longer. It does, you know, reconfirm that longevity is, is a real issue. Do you know? Do you know what

Unknown:

we could? We could do a deep dive on this and another subject, because if you read any of the stuff coming out of the kind of the technology companies, the AI enabled technology companies in the US, there's an there's an expectation, there's a great paper written recently that there's within 10 years live today, all diseases will be cured or fixable. Cancer will be all heart disease. So the impact for financial planning is just incredible.

Carl Widger:

I heard a great phrase, so your job now because, because of the impact of all of that that's going to come down the line is, your job now is to stay on the pitch. So just make sure you stay alive so that you're able to you're. Able to, you know, unreasonably, yeah, and just make sure that you can avail of all these, these

Nick Lincoln:

benefits kick in, yeah, yeah, exactly optimal, yeah,

Carl Widger:

exactly yeah. Fund manager that still alive that yeah, like, like him, just stay on the pitch.

Andy Hart:

We're mentioning him a little bit later on. That guy, yeah, all right, yeah, but, but, yeah. The serious note for this is the asset allocation for long term investing, for most people that hit this fictitious retirement point, and then we just want to, you know, obliterate their wealth over the next few decades because some ridiculous survey or mumbo jumbo questionnaire said about it. Now it's just all rolled into global equities, the realistic class that smashes inflation long term. So here's

Carl Widger:

a question on this, on this particular point. Then, if you have a perfectly healthy couple who are mid 60s and don't have any dependents, yeah, and they want to run their financial plan until age 90 for the two of them, because it's ridiculous that we would run it to age 100 Yep. What do you do in that scenario?

Unknown:

It's an art and a science. Run through the impact and consequences what it to be. Well,

Nick Lincoln:

actually, my longevity point might cover that off. Carl,

Unknown:

Okay, thanks, Nick,

Andy Hart:

can you do this after I bring up the pointless one about the lady living to the are

Nick Lincoln:

you still doing it? Sorry, I'm still doing it. Yeah, so

Unknown:

I saw the notes crack on. Nick, it's great.

Nick Lincoln:

Now then, yeah, yeah. Oh, okay, good, right? Well, longevity illustrator, this is an American site, so you have to look at that through the prism of American stats. But this is a great, easy to use site. You put in your client's ages. You can do a single life. You can do a couple. You can do, are they in retirement? If not, what age are they planning to retire? You can put in their state of health, you know, poor, average or excellent. Do they smoke or not smoke? And it will come back with various graphs. How likely a married couple, because that's the most instances. We're going to use it with real clients, how often a married couple, how long one of them will survive? Well, she gives it gives single mortality, joint mortality, how long the oldest one is likely to survive, and so forth, all in very graphical, graphical form, so relatively easy to digest for clients, even people that aren't mathematically that a debt, which includes me and I did I did it. My hat tip. Essays come out this afternoon. Hat tip. Nick.com do sign up about this longevity problem. A male age 60, retiring at 60, female retiring at 58 husband and wife. 50% chance one of them's going to live for 35 years. Yeah, just, just going to have. And what I think is nice about this tool is you could use it with the actual car you could use it with your actual clients, and just put their dates per in their ages and their names, and it gives a nice little PDF report. Carl can use this calculator. Well, no, his team would stamps or something. But absolutely, and it just brings it, just brings it to life. Now it's based on us stats, so you might get some pushback from that. But, you know, this is pretty similar. I would imagine that charity rates to us. I mean, this thing about them being big, big people. I mean, if you walk on High Street in the UK, for Christ's sake, go, I'm gonna go long Dunkin Donuts and tattoo parlors if I come back in a future life. So I don't think there's much difference. So longevity illustrator, there's a link to it with the so called show notes. Use it with clients, for those clients who maybe are just client cannot. But I don't think anyone who say is turning 60, going to the spending stage of their lives, just cannot imagine that. And the wife is 58 they just cannot imagine they're gonna be around in 35 years time.

Unknown:

But, by definition, but these are historical it's historical data.

Andy Hart:

There's no facts about the future which is going on. Historical information exactly so,

Unknown:

so you can, by extrapolating, and, yeah, you can, you can, you can further say, you know, with improvements to medical and if we done this 40 years, yeah, would have been underplaying it, but, but But Nick, he's the I mean that that's that, well, that's that's often quoted. I don't there's obviously various different sources that JP, JP Morgan, when they do their survey, what did you call it? Their quarterly updates, the markets really good. They often use that, and it's roughly those same sort of numbers. But then I've heard you talk about this in the past as well, Nick, that's for the broader population as a whole. And then you've got our clients, and if and there are, there's increasingly data available, things like post codes, lifestyle, affluence,

Nick Lincoln:

whether you went to university or not, makes a difference. Tertiary

Unknown:

Education is a is a thing. I mean, just fun fact points. There was a some data I saw came out last year, and it showed the lowest life expectancy in the UK was the beautiful city of my birth, Glasgow, yeah, and the highest was one of the highest, the second, third highest was where I currently live. So I thought I've added 10 years. Killed myself. Yes. I've had it 10 years to my life by relocating, but that's just the point. It's relative to location. Was one

Andy Hart:

of the questions Alan, where do you live? Then did you

Carl Widger:

fill in the other questions through but are there 40 year olds out there now who are going to live to 110 and is, is our world changing? Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's what I'm saying. Like it's, this is going to dramatically change, and it's, it's

Unknown:

part of our job. We've all got recency bias so we think about our current circumstances, friends that pass away, your parents were age, they died, and all those sort of things. And we haven't got the ability to project. And if you believe even half these stories are coming up, this sort of technological developments this, it becomes more exponential than linear. So it is very possible that people will, it'll be far more common living to 100 110 Yeah, and beyond. But

Andy Hart:

you can see the chinks in the human mind with our real clients. Back to your point. Carl, you sit down with a client and say, you know, here's a forecast. I'm, you know, I'm popping you guys at age 90 100, they spent the first 10 minutes the meeting telling you about the mum and dad, who's still alive, and they've got problems, and they're thinking about putting into a care home, and he's 9293 and then when you say, Oh, I think you're going to live to 90, no chance. Andy, I'm, you know, I'm going to pop it early, even though they told you for 10 minutes about their parents living longer and long. And I said, Look, your mum is 92 in 2025 by the time you get there with all these pills and potions like you might be here for a long, long time. That's the ozempic,

Unknown:

the guess. Yeah, so,

Nick Lincoln:

Carl, what did you tell these clients who wanted to push them their mortality to 90 down

Carl Widger:

to 80? I forgot. No, I, I, we had kind of long conversations about it. Now, they did have some property assets in their balance sheet. So I suppose the

Unknown:

you were gonna say Trsa, then when you

Carl Widger:

we clearly are the only four people who think this is funny, by the way, but anyway, you know, they could, they could sell, they could sell some of the properties out of, out of their portfolio to fund lifestyle. But, yeah, it was, it was a tricky one, because they were like, This is what we're gonna do. You

Andy Hart:

notice anyway, Nick, if you, if you forecast to 100 then they're gonna be okay financially, based on one life by 90 they're going to be absolutely fine if they've run out of money. Obviously, it's a slightly different conversation. I sometimes create what if plans or I kill them a lot later, called exponential life that I'm having one eye on this, but that's probably too much for this conversation. Kill them 110 and see if the money lasts.

Unknown:

That reminds me years ago, early days of our financial planning journey, we had a client. We took on a new client. It was referred to us by his daughter, I think. And the guy was like, 88 at the point of engaging with us. And so we ran, I don't know if you've ever run a cash flow model for anyone with you know, even assuming 100 Yeah, you've got these, like lock we

Andy Hart:

work with life homes.

Unknown:

93 you're 93 and you don't 100. So you've literally got these 710 because I'm not gonna make years, the years are the years, the whole page. So yeah. And even then he was worried about, what if inflation goes up. We're going, mate, if you and you got no return whatsoever, you're still going to be okay. Yeah, you died, died the next year, right? Well planned, right? Or

Nick Lincoln:

next point very quick. Sorry, go on, Nick I've done longevity, so, yes, ultra Sorry, mate, your, what's it called to what's your thing? It's

Andy Hart:

a free advertisement. Advertisement. Bell goes off. It's my conference humans, under management, I've hit your own corner. I've launched the tickets for London and South Africa. If anyone from the UK wants to come out to the South African event, you have a free ticket. Quite a few people have taken this great offer. It's a lovely trip, lovely work event, and the London one is on the 12th of November. So check out the website, humans, on management.com, I launched tickets. I think we can a bit ago, and I think we sold about 180 we've got to sell 400 that's the number. So we're on it back to you, Nick.

Unknown:

Nick and I have both been out there as international keynote speakers when you both, when you're inviting our correspondent

Carl Widger:

from Lima, because the London anymore, every year, every year he falls at some stage, he goes, Yeah, yeah, I'll get you over next year, next year. Carl, No, he won't.

Unknown:

Did you boys enjoy your time in Cape Town?

Carl Widger:

It's all right. It's okay. Myself and Nick aren't sure about what happened with you guys. Remember

Nick Lincoln:

the food and wine is lovely in the company was lovely the Yeah, South Africa. South Africa has got its issues, and sleeping at that.

Andy Hart:

Yeah, and is it about. Amazing place. Alan, did you

Unknown:

enjoy it's amazing. What do you call that wine place we went to? Oh, graph. Graph, wine reserve, Stella, Bucha, yeah, beautiful, yes, finest places I've ever been

Andy Hart:

to. Very nice when you go there. It's like one of your best, best days of the year for for sure. All right, moving on. Thank you very much. Everyone. Check it out. Thank you, Alan, over to you, Vanguard,

Unknown:

friends of the podcast, keep it at that for the moment. Vanguard well known to everyone else. I just happen to know. I just happened to come across this thing the other day. Vanguard have got effective. I think they call it volatility hub. I don't know if anyone's come across this or seen this, but you know, they have there are situations where things come up where they've got, like, client ready, Videos, downloads, you know, information, communications that's available for advisors just to go and have a look at when we go through these periods of volatility, if you want to have an informed opinion about, I mean, for example, tariffs. None of us knew really much about tariffs, but they've got a very got a very sort of thoughtful summarized version that could be used in language that a client would understand. We've got examples of that for free for advisors. Link to it is in the show notes. I found it quite useful, quite interesting, quite helpful. That was it good

Nick Lincoln:

stuff? And I do do a lot of good stuff for advisors. Actually, it's quite a good resource to lean on.

Andy Hart:

Okay, final point on that Nick You do need to actually sign up and subscribe. I'd recommend doing it, because they have a load of other different resources. So fill in their sort of sign up thing. When

Nick Lincoln:

you go onto that website, you'll find a box pops up and you need to put your name and your surname in your company name. But yeah, you need to log in. Okay, very good. And thank God you're here right. Watch podcast YouTube creators. Yeah,

Carl Widger:

I so I'm in the meta studio here today, but I was doing another interview for our third act series, and I found a place I've put a link to in the show notes to it, just if anybody needs a studio in Dublin, it was a really cool spot. But, and the reason I kind of mentioned it is I know Alan has literally just fresh out of the box a new episode for the entrepreneur. You

Andy Hart:

guys winning podcast, you both on other podcasts.

Carl Widger:

I don't, I don't. I just did. I'm doing a kind of, okay, the third act is just for clients. Really just clients story. But Alan's gone into a new studio, and that interview you did with that guy was absolutely outstanding. He is seriously impressive. Thank God for it. Yeah, yeah, he really is. And he just just a great story. And like, people telling stories is just such a great way of extolling the virtues of what we're trying to do here. And it's much more interesting than anything else. And and my point here is there are so many studios available, and I think the studio I priced up a couple of them, and some were ridiculous prices. Now I got, I got an hour for 300 quid, like you can do this, and I'm sure they would have given us great value if we took it for a day, or something like that. You can do this stuff. You can you can start producing your own content. Do not let it hold you back. I don't see enough of it. I don't see enough financial planners, you know, getting stories told. Are trying to even tell the story of their own business. And I promise you, it's, it's, it's, you know, look at, look at the success of this podcast. I mean, we're just, it's so amateurish, and people, you know, tune in regularly. It is, it is. It's probably part of the charm of it. But just go and do it. Folks, just go

Unknown:

and do me. You make it. You make a great shambles. You make a great point, actually. And you're right. So I've had this other podcast going for about the same time as we running trap, and it's always been like this. It's been Riverside video recordings, and it's been fine. And then I took a break from it for a couple of months, and I was just thinking, do I yeah, maybe it's like, like, Nick, Nick and Andy, as you know, apparently, they also had podcasts looking for one more successful, the other possibly. But who am I to say? Thank you? Should I? Should I? I was on both of them, you guys, yeah,

Nick Lincoln:

which explains quite

Unknown:

a bit they're over, but, but I just, I thought, No, I'm going to go again, but I'm going to, you know, up the stakes a bit. So I found it's actually just near where I live, and it's in central London, a professional podcast studio, and it's a nice young guys. It's, it's his business. They set it all up, and the costs are actually a little bit lower than you've just mentioned there in Dublin. So yes, so it's going to cost more than what we're doing here, but immediately, the quality, even my harshest critics have said it just looks like a proper podcast. You're in a proper studio with real cameras and proper lights and stuff, and honestly, for the sake of a few 100 pounds, you could go to one of these places and interview a client, interview your staff, or just do a piece to camera. They've got all the teleprompter stuff you could create. You know, in an afternoon you could create. Ton of really high quality video content, yeah, to have it sort of edited and stuff afterwards, but I 100% agree with you. Carl, the world is expecting more high quality, professionally produced content. It's hard for us because geographically was spread apart. But you know these podcasts that people get in a studio

Andy Hart:

properly, but the bar rising, isn't it rising? There's so much companies are offering it to even rock up to your office with the whole studio. Set it up. Podcast studio, yeah, it is. If you just

Carl Widger:

do a few, you'll just get into some sort of flow. And it does not have to be perfect. And I know we had James jack on, on the on, as a guest on our podcast, and he is, he is, you know, he's like, he's what we should all be striving for. But it doesn't have to be as good as his stuff. You can, you can develop into it. And exactly like you were saying, Alan, I'm doing the third act series, and it is to talk about and listen to your word. And in a little while, I went, Hmm, third act, I asked some very similar questions that Alan asks in his podcast. I I wonder where I got those ideas from, right? So, so this is, this goes back to the point is, there's no one inventing anything here. This is, get your inspiration, yeah, take nothing, take what, take what will work for you, and go and do it. Because I was coming out going, you know, wouldn't it be really great for like, obviously, we've got a few private client managers now, you know. And maybe if they could tell their story, and that might be a little bit of a, you know, when, when you on our website, you might be able to click into a video and and hear about, I'm married and I have two kids, and I want to, because they're all like, you know, young dynamic folks. And I think telling our clients a little bit about the people behind the brand or the logo. I think that'd be really cool. There's just two ideas, right? Just interview some of your existing clients and interview some of your team. And this is so easy to do, you just have to have a little bit of a bottle be, you know, to do the first cook few of them. I remember the first couple of trap podcasts. I used to sit down and actually prepare for them.

Nick Lincoln:

Oh, the memories. Yeah, long time ago. No, don't

Carl Widger:

watch so more and more confident.

Unknown:

Yeah, there is no excuse a quick, I think it's reasonable to do a quick shout out to a company called doc Vinci, I think, are part of the next gen who are also friends of the podcast, next gen, kind of community network. They've got a program available for advisors, and they will, you know, you go to either go to a studio where they are in the north somewhere, or potentially come to your office, you know, again, pay a few quick and they will do a full day's recording for you, then splice it and dice it into multiple, you know, smaller edits. So yeah, for the sake of a few 100 pounds, really, there is no excuse for anyone. So, yeah, I wondered what? When I saw that point coming up, I thought, what was he on about? But you make a very good point. Mr. Witcher, thank you. Thank you.

Nick Lincoln:

Nice to each other, right? Long, moving on, moving on, because we're only at 33 minutes. God help us. Longevity points. So it's ultra and this Omaha guy, what's his name?

Andy Hart:

Well, again, this follows along from the longevity point Mr. Warren Buffett, who's created 99% of his net worth after the age of 50. Anyway, it was his annual general meeting last Saturday in Omaha, Nebraska. We knew a few people that went there. He's currently 94 and basically he's retiring this year. He's retiring when his company is doing incredibly well. He's put it in a superb position. It's absolutely smashed the S P since 1965 he would have been the richest man in the world now, by an absolute mile, had he not given the bulk of his assets away to charitable foundation over the last few years, he's still individually worth about 170 billion, but he would have been worth close to 400 billion if he didn't give his money away to his charitable foundation. So I'm halfway through watching the Berkshire Hathaway Annual General Meeting, so we'll probably discuss him and that at the next trap show. Yeah, that's it, really. So Buffett's retiring at the end of the year. He's passing over to Greg Abel, who's been his sort of understudy. Was

Unknown:

it Greg? Greg able? He's about 70, so surpassing over to the youngster. Yeah,

Andy Hart:

I think he's been at Berkshire for 35 years or something. So that's it. It's they're part of the trillion dollar club. Berkshire now is worth 1.1 6 trillion. The performance of the last three months has been incredible compared to its sort of peers. Anyway, it's a superb company, super businessman. He's on my wall so my, my, my idols stare over me as I talk bullshit for you guys, yeah, he's been a big influence for me. Anyway, moving on, you're on his wall as well. Andy, yes, I think, oh my god. Check in as he. Passes. Okay, right. So storyteller,

Unknown:

just a quick one, and forgive me, I have mentioned this before, and this probably should be sponsoring this podcast because I've mentioned it, but Haley rabbits at The Verve company, got in touch with me again recently, just to remind us that they that company offers three different programs for advisors. One is called consider, which is their mini program that lasts about seven weeks for those people who are thinking about starting out on their own as advisors but need some support making the decision, do a go directly, authorize the point in rep, etc, which is the question that does get raised. The other program is called Build, which is a full program 12 weeks long for those who have taken the plunge. Have set up, usually in the first year or so of trading, could look for some support, guidance and mentoring. And they have their third program called Grow, which is a new program for any stage of business, looking to grow your business, perhaps recruit staff, consider succession planning, all that sort of thing. They've got cohorts starting in June and September. It is free. It's sponsored. Things about providers as but as I say, I have, I have mentioned it a few times before, but you know, this podcast is all about, you know, providing help, resource support, pointing people in the right direction. We all get individual messages from advisors from time to time saying, you know, I'm at a crossroads. Not caught, not quite sure what to do, thinking of starting off my own and La, la, la. So there's a ready made, you know, cohort of training, support, mentoring available. So there's no excuse. So again, link in the show notes, but Haley at Verve will be

Carl Widger:

able to outstanding. There is no such resource here,

Unknown:

but a brilliant incubator.

Carl Widger:

Yeah, I think some of the Irish youngsters should be looking towards that program, because, you know, other than the technical tax pieces and that kind of stuff, I think it's, it's, there's a lot of generic universe to be done? Yeah,

Unknown:

yeah, there is. And just, I've just got secondary point related, but unrelated. We all, I you, we all get, I get various sort of communications, DMS, etc, from advisors, kind of almost, how can I put it? Sort of trapped in an organization that doesn't necessarily represent their own values, and it's frustrating. We might even talk about this a little bit later on in the TRAPPIST question, or version of this. So, just so you know there, as I've spoken to, one firm in particular recently, there's a few others who are actively, you know, good firm, top level, proper financial planning firm in in and around London, southeast. Obviously, this is geographic dependent who are actively recruiting for those kind of early stage financial planners. Trainee financial planners kind of will will inherit a book of really good clients over time. So if that is you, if you're looking to sort of get into a great company, because they're they're like, hens getting a place in a really good, proper, full fat financial planning company is quite rare. And I often thought, by the way, that we should have our own trap jobs board or something, if we could just have an ability to always screen companies that we think are great, proper financial planning companies and those looking to find those positions, because it's just, it's just really hard on the face of it. You know, a lot of every company says, Yeah, we do proper financial planning, but the reality is probably quite a bit different, certainly the feedback I've got. So if anyone is in that space and thinks I'd love to speak to a company who's actively recruiting for kind of early stage financial planner, DM me on LinkedIn. I'll put you in contact with the people who are looking for that type of recruit lovely offer,

Nick Lincoln:

good stuff, great stuff. Great stuff. Okay, final, final. Topical tidbit, 38 minutes, 50 seconds in Ultra

Andy Hart:

Yes. So on the day this comes out, the Bank of England will be meeting to decide what they're going to be doing with interest rates, and the odds are on for it to be declining. It's currently 4.5% it's going to be moving down to 4.25% the mortgage markets factored in a heavy decline of rates this year. You can get a lot of two and five year fixed rate mortgages now, starting with a three and there's about a million people coming up for renewal on their mortgages every year. So obviously, when the rate was a lot higher, this had a massive impact for people. But now the the thought is that interest rates are going to plummet this year, and they're saying that they're going to plummet all around the world. But anyway, I'm just looking at the UK numbers, so Yeah, nothing hugely more to say about that. Does this crop up with your clients? Gents, you keep an eye on high level rates. Any thoughts on this?

Nick Lincoln:

Not so many great clients. Bring it up. If they've got mortgages, they're on fixed rates, then they will say, you know, crikey, we had a five year fix, and it's a 2.29 and looking around now, it's not. Gonna be like 4% or something. So you change the cat, but no, I don't particularly follow it to any great degree. It's not particularly exciting. Yeah,

Unknown:

sure, it's up. It's a normalizing of interest rates, isn't it? Interest rates, we had 15 years of practically zero, 0% interest correct? And, yeah, the world is kind of just somewhat normalizing. It's quite

Andy Hart:

there's a link in the show notes. So they've got a whole stuff about, you know, inflation and all the numbers that, you know, the amount of mortgages are coming, and they've got to got a lot of long term interest rate graph of it from, you know, 1985 yeah, there's this massive chunk in the middle of it, just hitting the floor, dropping down and then shooting straight back up to a level that when it dropped, dropped, dropped down in 2008 or 2009 anyway, that's it, nothing hugely interesting to finish off. Topical tidbits. Over to you.

Unknown:

Okay, back at the RSA corner. Thank

Nick Lincoln:

you. Thank you. Okay, so let's now move on to what many people call the meat and potatoes of the real advisor podcast. This is where we get our teeth into something juicy and give it a damn good thrashing. And the thrashing we've talked around this subject, I think, before in topical tip bits numerous times, you might have somehow gone into a tangent on it, in the meat of potatoes, but this is a meat of potatoes dedicated to Bitcoin and or and crypto, because it is, it's it's still going up in value. Bitcoin, apparently, it's becoming more and more the subject for polite discussion. Obviously, in the US they're adopting it. The US government is looking favorably on Bitcoin. They've got David Sacks as their Bitcoin crypto czar, one of the guys from New Orlean podcast, a very switched on guy. And I know that in this country there are ifas now who are looking at it more seriously, and there are resources now to help advisors get up to speed with it. So we've all got varying views on Bitcoin and crypto, because I think they are two different things. But maybe you can educate me. I'm not gonna. I'll save my I'll keep my powder dry. But I think you might, you might have an idea who wants again, we've done bugger all preparation for this, really, in terms of any kind of structure. I know, Alan, you've been on a pocket. There was an envelope being open recently, and you had to be there for it. And you had to be there for it. Now. Sorry, you were a podcast recently. Weren't you open

Andy Hart:

another another envelope that night? So we can do it

Unknown:

all. Right, okay. Now I was on it. I was on it so I will get stroppy. I've got complete trepidation of this very subject, the B word, I'm looking at crypto call here, and I just, I noticed, you switched off his camera a minute ago. I thought he just left the room, because this is a I just had a little bit of sick in my mouth. Slightly contentious subject, it would appear amongst the trap community, but I've actually have done a little bit of preparation for this. And I think it's, I think it's a worthy subject to, you know, have a 10 or 15 minute discussion and debate, and just to start off with, just to be clear, I'm not here in any way to promote Bitcoin as an investment or a way of saving or investing, or sort of removing yourself from the sort of centralized government control potential. I'm just here to suggest that we all might want to learn more and may wish to educate ourselves. That's the starting point. Just to make that clear, I'm not pushing Bitcoin in any way, but I am pushing an education and learning bottom line in terms of facts and statistics, this is now around about $2 trillion market cap, market cap. It's not small. It's been around for over 15 years. And actually, let me make this very clear as well, because Nick, just to clarify on your point, Bitcoin is not crypto. Crypto is not Bitcoin. The whole point is bitcoin is the only one which is absolutely decentralized. There's no company, there's no CEO, there's no founder, there's no one who can control or that you know, the creation or the production. So it's a decentralized protocol, piece of technology which has got a value. Just to be clear, there are only ever going to be 21 million Bitcoins created. I think there's already been 19 million mined. So there's a lot lost Alan along the way. He fails or something that, yes, there's been lots of people have lost

Andy Hart:

them. And the founder million in his own wallet that people see public access to, as in, Yoshi, yeah, come out, or wherever he's called, hey,

Unknown:

yeah. So there's there's all that sort of thing. So the point being, it is a finite resource, and if there's demand for something in a finite resource, then it does push the price up. Additional statistics, 12% of the UK population own crypto, of which there are 4 million people in the UK who own. Bitcoin in some degree or another, might be small amounts, might be medium, might be large amounts, but there are 4 million people, I'd imagine. Pro rata, the numbers be broadly similar in Ireland and other parts of the world. Big organizations, again, in the US, like BlackRock, like Fidelity, like some other huge, multi billion trillion organizations are embracing one degree, the concept of Bitcoin, again, repeated, not, not, not shit coins, not made up tokens, not but specifically Bitcoin, as opposed to crypto. And here's the other thing, just sharing personal experience our clients, our clients are beginning to ask us and some serious client you know, we've got quite a few like we all have. We've got smart, intelligent often, entrepreneurs, business owners, and you move in those circles, and the conversation comes up quite regularly. We had a recent client conversation, a client who wanted to allocate, in monetary terms, quite a large sum of money into bitcoin in his overall percentage of wealth, relatively small, but he wanted to allocate. So people are beginning to ask more about it. And I personally don't think that. I don't know anything about it. It's unregulated. I don't think that it, that is the only answer that you can give. It's important, I think, for people to at least know a bit about it and educate themselves. It might. I'd like to think, in my company, we've always been quite innovative. We were very early adopters of, you know, things like Cash Flow Planning before voyant even came to the UK, investment proposition platforms nowadays, AI, technology. So this is, this is something which is new and innovative. And I quite like the, you know, being an organization, a company, that's, you know, alive to emerging changes, uh, interests, things that our clients are talking about, and, at the very least, informing myself about it. So that's, that's kind of the the opening salvo. Now, just to be clear, Bitcoin specifically isn't, is unregulated in the UK. Even if you wanted to, you couldn't recommend or advise upon it. And incredibly, there aren't even ETFs. The Black roll ETF available in the US isn't generally available in the UK. And from what I gather, the FCA so far seemed to be quite anti the whole, the whole thing. And the interesting thing is that, by the FCA approach to being completely unregulated, and so far, all the communications I've seen from the FCA the bundle Bitcoin and crypto together and and guess what, you can go out and buy like a three times leveraged micro strategy stock, for example, which is, which is the company that invests predominantly in Bitcoin, you can buy that as a UK investor, but you can't buy bitcoin. So that you know one is far more risky, volatile than the other, arguably. So I think at some point we will follow the US, as you say, Nick the you smart people in the US. From David Sacks, Howard luck, they're all talking about whether it's a strategic Bitcoin reserve, but the point is, at senior level and biggest economy in the world, it's on the agenda. At some point the UK has to embrace all coins. What that ruin is like, what that looks like, yet to be determined. But I'd rather be somewhat ahead of the curve than just trying to sort of catch up as and when the FCA makes some big pronouncement. There's loads of different reasons that you might want to consider learning about Bitcoin or talking about it, and we don't have time to talk about all the various levels. The number one reason people get into bitcoin is because the number keeps going up. They look at it and go, Wow. Average annual returns about 60% yes, it's it's volatile. But a 200 a 200 day moving average, the chart just basically goes up. It's lots of volatility. What is driving that return? What is driving it well, demand. It must be in a in a finite supply of something, people are buying it when I think the Blackrock one is the most successful ETF ever launched something. So the Blackrock themselves are buying

Andy Hart:

new numbers, going new numbers. Aum, that might be correct. Yeah. Now there's a bunch of others.

Unknown:

Think fidelity, just like there's, there's, there's quite a lot now, who

Andy Hart:

are offering Bitcoin just on the ETF point? Do we think that's going to happen on the horizon? And Carl, are you dictated by what Europe does to launch the ETF in Ireland?

Carl Widger:

Yes, I so. The Irish the central bank have to approve the you know, they have to say that, yeah, this is now a regulated product. So, so yeah, but

Unknown:

let me just, let me just quote you, and then this is all hypothetical, but historically, just as a matter of interest, I've often talked in this podcast. We've all got a version. A review of it, which is like the concept of the investment playpen. You buy global equities for the, you know, the family fortress, reliable, but you're, you're allowed to have a, you know, a bit of a punt on the side was 1% 3% 5% or something of your assets on the basis that if you lost it all wasn't going to change too much. And if you got a 10x return, it would be, you know, happy days. But there's some statistics published recently. I just give you an example, and this is talking about 6040 portfolio over the last 10 years. 6040 6040 has done, on average, about 6.2% a year the last 10 years. If you started with a 10, you know, if you're an advisor and you had 10 million pounds of client assets that 6.2% would, over 10 years, turn up to 18, from 10 million to 18 point 3 million. If you allocate, if you had allocated 1% to Bitcoin, the return moves from 6.26 to 8.15 and the 18 million to 22,000,005% to Bitcoin, the return goes from, as I say, 6.26 to 14.78

Carl Widger:

Alan, Alan, with respect those numbers, those numbers like account for a massive increase in Bitcoin in the in the recent past. So that's like picking and choosing, you know, time frame. You can

Andy Hart:

just add Tesla stock there as well. Couldn't, you know?

Unknown:

No, no. I'm just just saying, if had to, if someone had had, and some of our clients had video, we don't manage it, okay, but had they allocated a 1% a 2% allocation of their wealth to this

Andy Hart:

and rode it through all the cycles of extreme pull downs, which, again, humans have found to not be able to do. But I get the maths. I get your point. Well,

Unknown:

I mean, again on that, again, just we can't say

Andy Hart:

to someone. We can have discussions with them, of course. Okay, here's what I'm thinking. Andy, okay, why are you thinking that? Well, does that make sense? Yeah, that seems a bit punch. You know, that could make sense if you found somewhere to access it. We can't ever say this is the platform. This is the provider. This is the fund, unless it becomes a regulated product packaged in a regulated entity, unit, trust or ETF, yeah,

Unknown:

I agree. And I think one of one of our roles should be to for the client. It says, whatever you're doing, I'm going to go and buy something. Because everyone I'd speak to things go you want to be able to say, by all means, do, but if you do, don't buy shit. Here's a few of the key key points that you should bear in mind. This is 10 foot high letters. This is not advice. So the last part, I just say, just that you don't have a conversation, yeah, conversation. Just say, there's just so I but I would encourage anyone just to learn a bit more, because it's basically all this is basically the story about money, what the purpose of money is, and the fact that the situation, yeah, it's just, it's a new version of money that can't be diluted, attacked, and all the rest. Obviously, it's got lots of applications around the world. Aren't still relevant. And I would say for most of our clients, it is less relevant because, as Carl's just pointed out, you can transfer money anywhere in the world quickly using Revolut or whatever. Most are invested in equity. So they released got some protection against you can buy bitcoin via via Revolut as well. All I would say was I mentioned, I think I mentioned this in a past episode. I think I posted a link to it, the video that Joe Bryan has created called What's the problem, and that just starts with it doesn't. It's not trying to promote Bitcoin. It's saying these are the problems with the economy. And again, story for another time, there's loads of problems with the economy. Maybe we're sheltered from it. Maybe we deal with affluent clients, but there are loads and loads of problems. So watch the video by Joe brink, or what's the problem, and read a book, read broken money by Linda Alan.

Carl Widger:

I did watch it, though, and it's interesting, and it's well put together, but it's also from the outset, it's clear the conclusion that we're going to come to, and I'm not sure things are as broken as the video outlines, right? That that it's, as I don't know, draconian an outcome that's that we're going to be facing. I am, I'm, I'm slagged off every time this comes up and and people slag me off and say I don't have any knowledge about it at all. I've done as much reading as anybody else on this thing,

Unknown:

right? Probably more, probably more. Carl, no, take the piss. Probably more. So

Carl Widger:

I am as MD of met as Ireland. It's my duty to tell my clients what I think they should be investing in. Now, from the outset, I will say, Go back to your playpen thing. I have had this discussion with people who have shit loads of money and want to have a playpen. I'm like, we can, we can tell you how to work that if you're, if you're interested in Bitcoin or cryptocurrency, currency. So we do have those, those conversations. Can't know, but generally speaking, and I'll just make these few points, right? Right? And some of them have already been mentioned. I have found it in the Trump's first 100 days more difficult or more common, that that people out there, not necessarily our clients, but people out there, are much more frazzled about investment markets and their investments going down, or their pension funds going down right now that's in a period of, this isn't, this wasn't real volatility at all, you know, this was just a little bump in the road. And yet, we're finding people, you know, really, really nervous. And I know of a client whose son was invested with Bitcoin, and he was worth an absolute load of money, and came in to see me, and I said he wanted to buy a house. And I said, Well, look, this is, this is easy peasy. Sell your Bitcoin and buy your house, and you're, you're still left with some of your Bitcoin. You get that much of it. He didn't do any of it. It then absolutely tanked, and he lost most of his money, and then he sold out. And the guy is what, well at the time was, was, I've told this story before, was depressed, so the volatility, most, most investors are not ready for this level of volatility and to lose this level of money, if it's with a significant amount of their money, brutal. So therefore, for me, as the MD of medicine Ireland, putting together client investment portfolios, I don't think it's appropriate, because I don't think we will manage to make all of our clients stay in their seats. Okay, just,

Unknown:

just to be clear, I, as I said right the beginning, I'm not in any way promoting this. I couldn't even if I wanted to. Yeah, but what's talking about? Being educated and informed so we can have an intelligent discussion with a client. And

Carl Widger:

I accept that point. It's, it's, I suppose what I'm doing is I'm defending myself against the people who are online and under in our comments, right? They do go cart, which doesn't know what he's talking about, right? So today I'm putting a marker in the ground saying, I do, but, but I have, that's just my way of doing it. Is, like, I don't really understand it. But I tell you what I don't understand, right? Satoshi, whatever his name is, right? As Andy was talking about, he still has a million or whatever. I can't get my head around that shit. Like, I just can't, right? Anyway, that's let me just let me know. Let me go on, because I do want to make sure that I make all these points and let the haters come back then, right? So I don't believe that this is, is Bitcoin a currency, a crypto currency, right? So, is it a currency? So therefore it's not. So I would argue, because it does not generate a dividend, yes or income or cash flow, that it should not be dictated as an asset class, correct, because it has no intrinsic value? Correct? Okay,

Unknown:

that's fine, and that's that's true, but

Carl Widger:

it's not an asset class. I was just going to say I would not, was. That's why we would not put gold into our client portfolios, right? So, and I'm comfortable saying gold should not be in our portfolios, even though gold has just any

Andy Hart:

commodity, exactly, no natural income, not really.

Carl Widger:

So that's my that's my second point, right? I won't neighbor these points right, the how regulation and how mainstream central banks deal with this, how taxation evolves with this. I don't think anybody knows how what that looks like. And there certainly could be, or should be or might be fight backs right from the mainstream. Whether that's good or bad, I don't know but, but it could make some people's holdings worth a lot less than what they are now. Now, Andy, you did mention stable coin, right? So when you've got the likes of the Collison brothers in stripe buying bridge, I think they were called for 1.1 billion in order to be able to accept and to do payments over stable coin. Now you're starting to see is this. This is stepping into to mainstream. You mentioned David Sacks, and his job is to be the crypto SAR in Trump's government. However, if you read a lot about that, they're not actually buying up shitloads of Bitcoin. They're just taking the stuff that they've seized from criminals, and that's what they're putting into their their bank. So they're not actually active buyers, as far as I'm aware of cryptocurrency another one, right? So if people are going buying bitcoins directly, right? We laughed and joked about that Aegis, who lost his thing, yeah, his his the keys in his laptop, and there it's in a dump somewhere. Yeah, right. There you go, right. Do do our clients like, what do we always say about our clients? You know, you will have segregated assets if anything goes wrong, it's never going to be a Lehman Brothers, where we did not. Know what was where your assets were, you'll always have a segregated account, and we'll always be able to know exactly where your money is. And then my final point, and I think this is probably the most important, a little bit like AI, the great companies of the world that we encourage all of our clients to invest in, those great companies are doing so much in AI, you know, that we, we have no idea how much they're going to do. And we were talking about, you know, medical advancements around AI, they're, they're that research and development is being done by the great companies of the world. So, so our clients are getting the benefit of all that r, d in AI. Similarly, you've mentioned BlackRock and put the but, you know, there's, there's loads of other ones, so, so if you want to talk about, you know that the great companies that people are investing in, so the stripe guys, right? They're investing in stablecoin. Patrick Collison now has gone on the board of meta. Is that good? I don't think is good. But anyway, it's my point is, these guys are all talking about the same things, right? So our clients are investing in the great companies of the world in what has always worked, and the great companies of the world make progress by acting on human ingenuity. So therefore, yeah, if, if exactly right, if we need to pivot, or if the great companies the world need to pivot, our clients are all going to ride on the back of that, I believe, so that these are all the reasons why I don't think they should be part of the portfolios. I'm totally okay. It's a little bit like the you know, if you want to think that active fund managers are the way to go, right? I'm okay. I will be totally respectful of what your views are. But I just, I I'm yet to be convinced. I'm I'm going to sit on the fence. I'm not going to be an earlier adopter on this and and if we have to pivot and I go, do you know what this is? Absolutely I'm very comfortable with all of this for all of these reasons, then I will. But for now, not for me.

Nick Lincoln:

That's a very, very considered response. Carl, thank you for that. Andrew,

Andy Hart:

okay, I'll thrown a couple of two pence here. It is going to be interesting what the regulator does around allowing these to be included into portfolios. And if and when that comes, if ever, they'll be quite interested in see how Europe deal with it, and then the the UK, obviously the US has led. I knew about Bitcoin in I think 2013 and I went up to went to random meet up in central London, and I've been sort of, uh, pushing back. We

Unknown:

can't drop again. I've been, he is Satoshi.

Andy Hart:

I've been pushing back on it since 2013 it's not a real asset class doesn't make sense. Doesn't make sense. Me and Alan have spoken about 100 times over the last each other screenshots. Is Bitcoin worth$1,000 a coin. Now, don't it's too expensive, and it's too expensive, and it's never going to work another time. At three and a half 1000, we were like, surely we're going to go all in. Now, no, no, all in, just a pump. Anyway. That happens all the freaking time. So in recent times, I've become more pro Bitcoin in terms of the interest in it around the world. It's limited supply. It being the digital gold. You know, Bitcoin at the moment, it's 2 trillion. The total value of all crypto is about 3 trillion. I think the other trillion is, is guff, yes, I understand what a real asset class is. The whole reason why you get capital returns because it produces the natural income, and the only way you get that is from businesses and property. So, yeah, I'm totally agreeing on that. I'm definitely going to see a headline within my lifetime. Not definitely Anything could happen, but I'm going to see a headline within my lifetime that Bitcoin is, it will be worth $1 million a coin. We're at 100,000 at the moment, when it is worth $1 million a coin, the market cap is about 21 trillion. There's going to be an insane amount of fluctuation leading up to that. Yeah, there's 21 trillion in circulation. The founder owns a million. So when bitcoin is at a million, the founder that nobody knows, this fictitious person, The Wizard of Oz work, will be worth a trillion dollars. About three or 4 trillion has been lost. So we're now down, to keep it simple, about 16 trillion in circulation that will have a price on it, that will have a an insane market cap, still not a real asset class. I obviously will never be advising clients to investing. I obviously can't, as a regulated person, even when I when I am able to, again, we'll cross that bridge when we get there. So there's a few moving parts to it. I do have conversations with clients about it, quite a few. My clients own it. It's in the background. It's on their voice. In plans and balance sheets depend how big it is. I've had a few clients that have had six figures in it years ago, so that those numbers are now a bit more punchy. I'm working on a taken on a new client that is a VC in the crypto space. So I'm exposed to it all the time, as as all of us are. Yeah, it sounds insane. These just words, you know, connected together. So yeah, I've become a bit more pro Bitcoin as digital gold, not a real asset class in recent in recent times, I've read up more about it, yeah. So I agree with a lot of the points there.

Nick Lincoln:

So you like it more now, because the value of it's gone up, but it hasn't changed in

Andy Hart:

any way. Has it? Well, loosely, following the story for 12 years, actually following something for 12 years, and it's sort of, you know, I'm going to continue to follow the story. I would have followed the price. I'm going to follow the madness that goes along with it, having conversations with taxi drivers and hairdressers. You know, the usual stuff is, anyway, what's your thoughts on it? Nicholas,

Nick Lincoln:

I just, I still don't get it. Sorry, it must be me. I don't I don't get it. I think it's the greater fool theory writ large, and it is taxi drivers selling the Gartmore tech tornado fund to punters in 1999 this yakasemi Sushi, whatever his name is, it's just all it's like crowds going by with wizards on I can see, I can see the utility of a system that enables, yes, friction, the technology behind me, the technology behind and it's not, and it's not fiat money, so the government can't print more Bitcoin. I really thought you would embrace it for purchasing that's all. It's a bit of currency. It has. We thought

Andy Hart:

you would be the right off grid, you know? Well, it's just removing fiat currencies. Man,

Unknown:

you know how much the pound of the dollar has been devalued by this constant creation of new money, the money supply printing money. So clearly, the pound in your pocket, you're in your pocket is worth less continues to be worth less and less and less. Inflation, yeah, you

Andy Hart:

lose 90% over 30 years. Yeah, we know that. Yeah. So if your bitcoins are going through the roof, and if you want to buy something with Bitcoin, the price of the thing you're buying will go up. Yeah, it's insane. Shop and go, I like those trainers, 50 quid. By the time you get to the till, it's like 68 quid. Exactly.

Unknown:

What do you mean that will break the world economy? You need stable coins, and you the technology behind it. You guys have read the book as well, the

Nick Lincoln:

meat and potatoes natural

Unknown:

orders deflation, isn't it? Technology improves things to go down in price, in reality, but they continue to go up in price because there's more and more money chasing the same fixed spy of goods.

Carl Widger:

Go into a shop and buy a loaf of bread and like, by the time you walk into the shop,

Unknown:

or you're buying it in you converting to fiat. Do you mean what the price goes continues to go up, as we know, through inflation, in in denominated and saying

Andy Hart:

about the volatility of something like Bitcoin, only if UK adopted Bitcoin tomorrow is the only currency you could buy. See me, yeah, it will be total carnage. You'll be like, I'm gonna get a new car in October. And the current 60 grand, great example, now it's 112 whatever. Or it's gone down to 30, it would, it would just be unsustainable. Yeah,

Unknown:

it is. It's only 15 years old, so there's a lot of volatility in it, and the volatility will reduce, uh, over time. I think you I think this is quite a

Andy Hart:

fair and this mining thing just to throw again. So when Bitcoin first launched to connect all the trades you needed, like insane, was launched. Let me just fucking finish. You know, in order for these trades to be completed, you needed a site in an insane amount of computing power to confirm all these trades on the ledger. Now, as every I think they called it the half thing, don't they, Alan, so every, every time it has the computing power connect these trades doubles? Yeah, so. So there's been a lot of people that have been involved in this greatest thing to ever happen to the human race, biggest fraud in history, whatever side you sit on, there's been farms and people and like teams and 1000s and hundreds of 1000s of people across the world that have kept this greatest thing to ever happen to the human race, worst fraud in history, like there's been a lot of activity around this. So it isn't something to just say, or you might be right, Nick it might be a load of bollocks. It might be the greatest thing to ever happen to the human race, and the most you know, innovative thing to ever happen. I like the story behind it. I like the technology behind and people that are insanely smart say the person that's created this is creating something that is an absolute wonder of technology, which,

Carl Widger:

you know, I'm going to sort of that argument is all joking aside, right? That, you know, does really. Really smart people who are saying that this is the best thing ever. There's really tech inverted commas. Really, really smart people, you know, saying that active fund management is the way to go, that it just doesn't like that does not equals a really good idea.

Andy Hart:

I'm just saying it's one of the other points amongst many I know, but I'm aware enough to think it's the greatest thing humans ever create, the biggest fraud in history

Carl Widger:

that I'm challenged by. I suppose the bit that's pissing me off being frank, right, is that if you say to the I'm okay with listening to the pros of Bitcoin, I think Alan has put, you know, Alan put the case forward for knowing about it, learning about it, and just updating yourself on it really well. I think that's a good idea. But if I then say, well, I have done all that research and I've decided it's not for me, well, I'm an idiot. And I like,

Unknown:

yeah, I 100% agree with you on that. And I have raised that point various people in this Bitcoin community that just, I mean, it put me off. I mean, I know. Andy, as you would expect, was deep in the weeds decades ago. I definitely wasn't. And one of the reasons I wasn't because I wasn't buying it. You know, you're you're against Bitcoin until you're for it. And I was get very much against it, and, oh, my god, anything on Twitter or something you got absolutely destroyed about, you know, have fun staying poor. You're an idiot because you don't understand it. And just, it's a very aggressive tone that these sort of, you know, Maxim lists of the code of all in on Bitcoin, people very negative towards anyone who says, Well, I don't quite really understand it. Well, you dumb, but

Andy Hart:

that's kind of any movement you get the extremes, you get the middle people, and you get the dabblers.

Unknown:

So that's why I really like Joe Brian's video, because he himself, very humble guy, and he just said, look, here's today. And by the way, you watch the end of that video, it's 30 minutes long. If you don't agree with it, you don't agree with it. You know, you've invested 30 minutes of your time. It's not, you know, move on. As they say, everyone will buy Bitcoin at the price they deserve.

Nick Lincoln:

Okay, we should give a mention to the Bitcoin. IFA, the Bitcoin. Ifa.com It was his Daniel Parkinson's podcast that you went on. Alan. He's got a very nice website. He's produced a like a crib sheet, PDF, six or seven pages for aim at advisors explaining Bitcoin. I didn't read it before this, before this shouting match began. Still can't solve any particularly the Wiser at the end of it, but good effort to him. Crack on. If you want to educate the eye phase and you're doing something valuable, throwing something out there at the university, and you will get your reward. I think this, this thing is a conflation of the get rich quick brigade, a massive dose of FOMO, and I think it's going to end in tears. Okay, that's my boy, Charlie

Andy Hart:

Munger called it. Charlie Munger called it rat poison squared. One of the show, yeah, co hosts in America called it everything you don't know about money combined with everything you don't understand about technology. But anyway, there's the difference. Alan just on that guy that Bitcoin, IFA, I mean, what's his what's his purpose? What's the up to, what's very

Unknown:

interesting guy. You can watch a podcast interview with yours truly and a couple of other people that have had on it, but he's very Dan parks in what is a kind of career changer guy, but he's got, like, a personal, visceral experience. He was living in Lebanon for a period of time. So that country, you know, they completely the currency. I can't remember the numbers that it went from what to the dollar to, like, 100,000 to the dollar in space of a couple of weeks. And you know, that was the classic time you, you know, you you'd order, you order, you pay for your food. It's like, you know, Germany, 1930s pay for your food before you've had it, because the price will go up in an hour or two. So he and, of course, down if you can get access to your your currency and your money. So Bitcoin was a bit of a lifesaver. There's a whole lot of other issues for for people living in countries where there's a very oppressive regime, and if you get money sent to you and you're sort of, and you've been sort of against the government, they'll come after you. They'll come after people have sent you the money. So that's So Dan's experience was there when he first really began to open his eyes to this thing, that the governments and other people can't get control of it, and you can it's it is more stable than some of these other currencies. Dan came back, went to the UK, trained as an advisor, qualified as an advisor, and, well, I won't say the name of the company, but one of the big kind of national brands didn't enjoy his time there, just to put it mildly, in terms of what he was able to offer to his clients. And quite brave, actually stepped away from it all and said, because he's very passionate about Bitcoin, but he wants to be an educator. He wants to help the advisory community. He's not ramming it down your throat. He's saying here's some things you might not know, which may help you with your relationships with your clients, now and then the future. And yes, there's quite a lot of useful material. He has got a podcast, and he's also offering, and I'll be careful what I promise, but he's offering a free workshop, a workshop you'll come into your company team, spend a couple of hours and just share this stuff. Just. Sure that your team are a bit more informed. Should a client ask you about it? So will you travel to Ireland of interest, or normally, if, if Carl pays his his flight, I'm sure he will. Okay, all right. So, yeah, so we need to do check out, as you say, the Bitcoin ifa.com

Nick Lincoln:

yeah, great stuff. Okay, well, we gave that a good thrashing. I'm sure we're still as equally divided on this as we ever were. And they said, Well, there's a way Moveable Feast, because this, this will keep on coming up and up and up so things change, and we must change with it, I guess. Although I won't, okay, what's your

Andy Hart:

birthday Nick? I'll buy you 1,000th of a Bitcoin. Yeah? Whatever. Great,

Nick Lincoln:

yeah. Let's now move on to the TRAPPIST questions part of the show. This is where there we go. There is postie, the drop work. There's she's at the front door with a bulging sack of TRAPPIST questions. If you want to ask a question of us, TRAPPIST do so by the link in the pinned tweet, or the pin decks or whatever. Also the so called show notes, and we will get through them. We're still answering questions from late last year. And today's question, Who is this one from? Let me it's quite nice envelope. This one, it's quite a nice manila envelope, thick

Andy Hart:

paper, Fauci not to say his name. Nick, just a heads up. Well,

Nick Lincoln:

I don't know. He said, honestly. I said, Lewis. I won't say the first letter. He said he was anonymous. I'll just say Lewis. I'm not going to not say the person's name at all, Lewis, with no social hand. This is, this is unbelievable. This one. This will go and have a lie down, make a cup of tea. Seriously, I'm going to read this. Hi, yeah. Now, hi. There pressing discussion about, oh my god, I have a pressing question about risk discussions. I'm a relatively new advisor at 26 years old, and I agree with a lot of things. You say. One thing I have been implementing a lot into my own practice is this discussion of volatility versus risk of low returns. Now, when it comes to the mumbo jumbo questionnaire, we have quite a large one, which we need to use enough, don't be smarty, which we need to use in our firm. It essentially guides the client away from anything above 70% equities, yuck. So it's wording like you could lose all your money you are willing to take a very high level of risk. I do my educational piece about what the how many a third of the way through, I do my educational piece about what the actual underlying event. Underlying investments means for these high equity portfolios, but it almost feels like I'm arguing with myself after presenting the mumbo jumbo questionnaire results of the client. If that makes sense. Kind of Louis the mambo jammer questionnaire has a way of making 6040, appropriate for most clients. No shit with its wording, when in reality they have 3040, years invest in the market. They should be at least 8020, correct. Louis, as you know, we cannot tell the client, no, you're not. You're going to take more risk, mate. My question episode 70, we've got to it. My question for you all is, what are the discussions you may have after completing a Mumbo jumper question there with a client, select a risk profile, which you know is too cautious. I would love to hear how you broach the subject in order to potentially move their thought processes more towards the equity side. We know this is optimal for them, and we are advising, however, okay, I find it tough after the mumbo jumper questionnaire has already given them the answer, and going up a risk profile gives them a statement about their investing approach that they don't agree with. For example, you're willing to take a higher level of risk with your money. Do you see the battle iron fighting? Question mark? Okay, last three lines come back to Earth. I want to do the right thing for the client without pushing them in an uncomfortable position, confusing them or to be forceful. However, I can hear Nick already. Yes, you can. Lewis, there will be a lot more uncomfortable discussions 20 years down the line. By being too cautious. Nailed it. There you go. Somebody else speak for a little bit while. I just go and get my throat. Los

Andy Hart:

Angeles out. Okay, there's a few weird starts to this. This crops up a lot when I'm at conferences. I was at a conference last week, and there was three advisors, all from the same network, saying how challenging, challenging it is with their network giving them an attitude to risk questionnaire to complete that leads most clients to this mystical six, seven out of 10. And then I think the network said the maximum you can nudge them up is two points up the 10 scale, and they're like, Well, anyway, it doesn't really make sense. I have my own risk questionnaire that I've created that isn't one off the shelf. It's a good starter for clients. I then have a long winded conversation about proper risk with clients. I've got a whole thing that I go through in different portfolios, different returns, different volatility, annual calendar year returns, me and Nick. I think I've got the same thing in relation to that, Nick and I sorry, Nick and I sorry. Have a remiss of me. I won't do that trap live Nick. I will be on my best grammatical behavior. And then my final point on this I do. I say to them, if you're gonna watch anything about investing in risk, I put a video together, and I send them a link to a video I put together called the informed risk scale, and then I have a great conversation with them in the initial onboarding process, a lot of people will quite a few clients who have come to me have heard my content, my podcast and stuff. They're all pro global equities anyway, so it's a bit odd I have to talk. I remember I took on, took on a guy once who said. Okay, Andy, there's, don't put any bonds in my portfolio. It's got to be 100% global equities. I said that. That's fine. I said, just send me an email. Just put it on the file. He said, the other thing is, I want you to look after my mum. I said, How was your mum? He said, She's 85 she's got a few quid as well, so don't put any bonds in her portfolio. And I'm like, Okay, now, now you need to send me a strongly worded email confirming no bonds in your mother portfolio. So sometimes they come to me, and I've got talk them down the return scale. So who's next? Nick you've done enough talking Carlin. Any

Unknown:

ad? Was it? No any chance of answering the question? Oh, just a big, long story about something else

Andy Hart:

cool, then answer the question. Mate, concisely. Go,

Unknown:

I'll do it right now. Carl, Alex,

Andy Hart:

answer the question, besides who we get on to you? Carl, right, a couple, a couple of things. Well,

Unknown:

first of all, when this comes up, these are my best friends. We we need to give we need to give clients. We have to give clients what they need, not what they want, or what the risk questionnaire says. Without that, there is no point in the job you do if you just, if it's a painting by numbers, put your answers to this mumble, jumbo question, and I will give you the outcome, rather than say, Hmm, that's interesting. Let's and then you apply that then. And if you say, take you a 6040 portfolio, or worse, a 4060, or whatever, the risk profile thing tells you, plug that into your cash flow model, run that over 30 years, versus, say, 100% equity or 9010 or something, and then demonstrate that to the client. You say, you can do what you want, but here is the long term impact of that. One grows at, let's say, compound 2% a year more than the other portfolio. And this is where it takes you. And it's all about and you talk about in the past, and the money, money is freedom. Money, you know, wealth is freedom. It's options, it's choices, it's generational, it's all the things you can do. So you might, you know, the short term answer to the question is here, but we need to understand the long term impact of those choices and then have the other the conversation about. So run, run a cash flow based on those things. And the last thing is, and I will give you credit, Mr. Ultra on this. This is using a words or weapons framing words and language. So the other thing to say to the client is, do you want a high return portfolio or a low return portfolio? And that's included because instead of saying a high risk or a low risk, which is completely the wrong, wrong end of the telescope or whatever, and everyone will say, I'd like a high return portfolio, please. And you say, I can deliver that to you. Relatively speaking, here's the thing, though, it comes with a bit more volatility, so you

Andy Hart:

could chip in very quickly. Final point before Carl, the root cause of this problem is compliance. Don't understand long term investing, correct? Yeah, so good luck trying to convince them about the way we think we didn't understand long term investing for X amount of years in this business, it's taken us a lot of untraining to get to where we are risk

Unknown:

versus volatility, one of the biggest lies in our industry, Carlos,

Carl Widger:

cash flow modeling does beautiful colors and shows you exactly where your money is going to come from over time. So very graphically, you can show your clients, demonstrate to them in pictures and colors where how long you're going to be an investor for? And then you can go back and say, so, look your attitude to risk questionnaires come back as a 6040, but would you agree that you should be, you know, much greater equity content, and if people aren't still not coming on that journey with you, because I saw you doubting it. Andrew, I'm always okay with a short, medium and long term, right? So short is your different pots, yeah? And then that that that will help at least most of the portfolio be in the correct. 8020 are 100% as the case may be,

Andy Hart:

yeah, these, these, these attitude to risk questionnaires, have been so destructive they've decimated more wealth. And I think, yeah, I think all of the fraud combined in this space, like by agree to agree, it's definitely institutionalized fraud. Okay, is it's been, it's diabolical. My blood, yeah, I just speak up. But I've read the

Nick Lincoln:

question, now, but I haven't inputted this. But Louis, this, this is such a big issue. This is the, I think it's the biggest issue in what this thing of ours really taking it around. And I think you need to find a new firm, because what you're doing will kill you from the inside. There are plenty of firms out there who don't follow such a prescriptive model and who's actually right about the compliance people, they don't have a bloody clue. And you might need to move on, my friend, and I hope you can do it, because you'll there's a part of you inside that's dying by doing this because, you know, it's wrong and it is wrong, right, just as far to

Unknown:

put on that. Nick, if he,

Nick Lincoln:

but if he, if he can get the bog

Unknown:

keep going, Nick, if he can get

Andy Hart:

the bog of his clients into an 80% An equity portfolio, 80% portfolio, just pick your battles and move on. You've got others telling

Unknown:

me you can't everything is every road, which means you know that you recall

Nick Lincoln:

right

Carl Widger:

direct. The rest is politics, the US version, caddy, Kay and Anthony Scaramucci,

Unknown:

the Fandango, yeah. He was much, yeah,

Carl Widger:

very, very good, yeah. I got that as well. He worked, he worked for Trump, I think, in the first and he got fired after only a few days, or something like that. It's really good. Now, look, we've joked often, or I've joked often about the echo chamber, so it is a little bit like my echo chamber. So when they were taking apart Trump's first 100 days. It was critical. So I then did listen to the all in podcast, guys, I have to say, the all in podcast isn't it's, it's, that is an echo chamber. Now they're all just confirming each other's you know, everything's great, and we're all great, and our buddy David Sachs is great. I'm not loving that as much as I used to, being honest with you, I'd like more dissenting voices in it.

Unknown:

But even J Cal is kind of,

Nick Lincoln:

he'll turn, he'll turn. He's a slippery sod, yeah,

Carl Widger:

but I just, I only mentioned it from the point of view, like, if you want two different podcasts to give you two different views on the first 100 days of Trump's administration. There you go. There's two. But the Scaramucci carry K they're out every few days. It's very entertaining stuff. I would say, Yeah, you guys will all probably hate,

Unknown:

don't mention, don't mention the UK version of that

Nick Lincoln:

nonsense. Than the US one. But

Unknown:

I actually kind of think you do make a fair point, because I would listen more to the all in, and it is a bit one sided. We should listen to the opposite side from times. Yeah, all right, my turn. Very simple, very effective. There is a I've just come across this recently. I think it's a fantastic newsletter called market sentiment, obviously, from the US, but regular newsletters, articles, it's a, would you call that thing that use Nick for your newsletter? Sub stack newsletter, market sentiment.co, just subscribe it and read it and use the data. Very helpful. That's me, okey.

Nick Lincoln:

Dokey. Lovely. So me next to Alpha architect, is a podcast. It comes out very occasionally, no more than once a week, I don't think. And they had one recently on the Trump bear trap. So it's a bit nerdish, a bit down in the weeds, but they were talking about how the markets have reacted since their Liberation Day on April the second, and how the premier, the various premier that go into equity returns are all over the shop. So large cap growth has taken the battery, international value apparently is soaring away us. Small caps have gone through the floor because they're affected by tariffs more than bigger firms. They're down by 30% whereas mid caps are up and they're roaring. So it's just a really this. The four factor model has size, has the value versus growth thing, it has profitability. And the fourth one escapes me, momentum and what I took out of this was actually we don't know what's going to be the next big thing and just have a broader, diversified portfolio and roll with the punches, but it's quite interesting to see these nerds kind of come to that conclusion on their own, on their own, on their own time. I didn't realize the premier was so all over the shopping minutes. I don't follow it that closely, but it really is. So basically, you want to fight what you want a portfolio that has a slice of everything, and just roll with the punches and come back in 30 years time. Andrew,

Andy Hart:

finally, mine is another podcast, someone who's been mentioned before on the show, Nikolai Tangen, in good company, it's a slightly older podcast, but it's with this guy called Paul Singer, who is the founder and then sort of activist hedge manager, a hedge fund manager in the US. Paul Singer, he runs a company called Elliot investment. He's, I've been done a whole Paul Singer, rabbit hole. No remarks. Nicholas, he's an insanely smart guy. Listen to this one podcast. I'm sure you want to consume more stuff about him, great stuff about business stories. There's a famous story about he, he owned a lot of the Argentinian sovereign debt when Argentina went bankrupt, and load of other stuff. So it's interesting

Unknown:

is that, is that Nikolai? Is that Nikolai, Nick and I met personal friend. What's

Nick Lincoln:

the name of the bank? How'd you say it?

Andy Hart:

Norgs. Norgs Bank. And my final point, a friend of the show, Pete Matthews, who's coming to trap live. He's bought his ticket. I think he's doing the i. The triple event he's doing, Brett Davis a trap at night, and then Abraham's conference on the following day. He's got a new book out, uh, meaningful money Retirement Guide, uh, just sent to me today, actually, so I've not read it. So other financial advisors, please do support it. I'm sure it's gonna be insanely good for clients. So yeah, that's Pete's new book, Retirement Guide. Thank you. Okay,

Nick Lincoln:

right? 90 minutes crikey, just about alive, just about still friendly with each other. There you go, dear TRAPPIST, thank you for your time as Episode Episode 70 comes to a close and disappears down the you bend of time. Thank you for your time and input on the show. Do leave a six out of five star review on iTunes or your app of choice. If you possibly can leave a review on it, like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. Well over 1000 weirdos now subscribe to us, which is lovely until the next time from the Track Pack. It's adios. Take care out there, and we're looking forward to seeing a lot of you see we cannot wait that's gonna be amazing. Love you loads, and we'll see you as and when. Goodbye, bye,

Unknown:

bye, bye, see you next week. You.

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Andy Hart

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Carl Widger

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